Beyond the Clinic Family Medicine on a Mission Part 1: How Air Force Physicians Achieve Humanitarian Goals Read Family Medicine on a Mission Part 1: How Air Force Physicians Achieve Humanitarian Goals
Phoenix Newsletter - March 2025 President’s Message: ABFM’s Unwavering Commitment to Diplomates and the Specialty Read President’s Message: ABFM’s Unwavering Commitment to Diplomates and the Specialty
Home Research Research Library US Primary Care Workforce Growth: A Decade of Limited Progress, and Projected Needs Through 2040 US Primary Care Workforce Growth: A Decade of Limited Progress, and Projected Needs Through 2040 2024 Author(s) Bazemore, Andrew W, Petterson, Stephen M, and McCulloch, Kade K Topic(s) Education & Training, and Role of Primary Care Keyword(s) Supply / Projections, and Teams Volume Journal of General Internal Medicine Source Journal of General Internal Medicine BACKGROUND: Despite efforts to mitigate a projected primary care physician (PCP) shortage required to meet an aging, growing, and increasingly insured population, shortages remain, compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, growing inequity, and persistent underinvestment. OBJECTIVE: We examined primary care workforce trends over the past decade and revisited projected primary care clinician workforce needs through the year 2040. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Using data from the AMA Masterfile and Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), we analyzed trends in the number of primary care physicians (PCPs) and in outpatient PCP visits by age and gender over the past decade. We then used the Medicare PECOS and Physician & Other Practitioners datasets to identify nurse practitioners (NPs) and physician assistants (PAs) in primary care. MEASURES: Using these baseline clinician enumerations and projected population growth estimates from the US Census Bureau for the years 2020-2040, we calculated estimated primary care workforce needs by 2040. KEY RESULTS: The effects of aging and population growth and baseline shortages in the primary care workforce call for significant increases in the primary care workforce to accommodate rising demands. Office visits to primary care clinicians are projected to increase from 773,606 in 2020 to 893,098 in 2040. We project a need for an additional 57,559 primary care clinicians by 2040. CONCLUSIONS: Workforce shortages in primary care continue to expand due to population aging, growth, and heightened rates of clinician burnout & egress. Read More ABFM Research Read all 2014 One in Fifteen Family Physicians Principally provide Emergency or Urgent Care. Go to One in Fifteen Family Physicians Principally provide Emergency or Urgent Care. 2020 Harmonized Outcome Measures for Use in Depression Patient Registries and Clinical Practice Go to Harmonized Outcome Measures for Use in Depression Patient Registries and Clinical Practice 2023 Measuring Trust in Primary Care Go to Measuring Trust in Primary Care 2022 Fostering Generalist Leaders in a Subspecialized World: Congratulations to an Expanded Cohort of New Pisacano Scholars Go to Fostering Generalist Leaders in a Subspecialized World: Congratulations to an Expanded Cohort of New Pisacano Scholars
Author(s) Bazemore, Andrew W, Petterson, Stephen M, and McCulloch, Kade K Topic(s) Education & Training, and Role of Primary Care Keyword(s) Supply / Projections, and Teams Volume Journal of General Internal Medicine Source Journal of General Internal Medicine
ABFM Research Read all 2014 One in Fifteen Family Physicians Principally provide Emergency or Urgent Care. Go to One in Fifteen Family Physicians Principally provide Emergency or Urgent Care. 2020 Harmonized Outcome Measures for Use in Depression Patient Registries and Clinical Practice Go to Harmonized Outcome Measures for Use in Depression Patient Registries and Clinical Practice 2023 Measuring Trust in Primary Care Go to Measuring Trust in Primary Care 2022 Fostering Generalist Leaders in a Subspecialized World: Congratulations to an Expanded Cohort of New Pisacano Scholars Go to Fostering Generalist Leaders in a Subspecialized World: Congratulations to an Expanded Cohort of New Pisacano Scholars
2014 One in Fifteen Family Physicians Principally provide Emergency or Urgent Care. Go to One in Fifteen Family Physicians Principally provide Emergency or Urgent Care.
2020 Harmonized Outcome Measures for Use in Depression Patient Registries and Clinical Practice Go to Harmonized Outcome Measures for Use in Depression Patient Registries and Clinical Practice
2022 Fostering Generalist Leaders in a Subspecialized World: Congratulations to an Expanded Cohort of New Pisacano Scholars Go to Fostering Generalist Leaders in a Subspecialized World: Congratulations to an Expanded Cohort of New Pisacano Scholars